Director Gordon Houlden and Deputy Director Jia Wang on the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China
Held only twice every decade, the Chinese Communist Party's National Congress is one of China's most important political events to watch. It marks a key moment of leadership transition and charts major policy directions for the years to come. Five out of seven members of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee - China's top decision-making body - will likely retire after the 19th Party Congress this October.
President Xi Jinping will almost certainly commence a second five-year term as the party general secretary, and Premier Li Keqiang is also expected to be re-elected. Having consolidated power during his first tenure at the helm of the Communist Party of China and the country, Xi has emerged as perhaps the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping. It is widely speculated that Xi is now in a stronger position to push for further economic liberation and structural reforms, which may include reforms of the financial market and state-owned enterprises. Strong party discipline and control as well as an assertive approach to international affairs are also likely to continue under the renewed leadership.
How the leadership reshuffle plays out will be a key outcome to watch for at the Party Congress. China's next president and premier in waiting (terms to start in 2022) might be named among the youngest of the newcomers to the party's Central Standing Committee. There is, however, speculation that Xi may look to stay on beyond his second term, which would spell the end of unwritten party rules of collective leadership upheld for nearly two decades. This could be in a third term as president or in some new position such as party chairman.
Xi's governing philosophy is expected to be officially adopted by the party's constitution as guiding ideological principles. If Xi's name is attached, his pedestal status on par with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping will be proclaimed, although it is not yet clear whether Xi's historic role would approach that of the earlier party titans.
A carefully drafted political report will be released at the Party Congress that will highlight key accomplishments of the past five years under Xi's reign, identify major challenges ahead, and lay out economic, social, and political policy priorities for the next five years and beyond.
Already the second-largest economy in the world and Canada's second-biggest trading partner, China plays an increasingly vital role in shaping the world we all live in. The paths forward set by the 19th Party Congress for China will have profound implications for the global economic and political order, which Canada cannot be insulated from.
Will China make substantive progress in liberalizing its economy and marketplace? Will China maintain its growth rates, which are gradually decreasing? What are the priorities of the country's foreign policies? How does China plan to manage great power relations with the United States? The Party Congress will address or at least offer clues to many of these important questions. With Canada likely to open free trade negotiations with China later this year, peering into China's future is both prudent and necessary.